Union - EdTribune OK - Oklahoma Education Data

One in Three Oklahoma Districts Just Hit Record-Low Enrollment

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Tulsa^↗ is at its lowest enrollment in at least 11 years. So is Oklahoma City^↗. So are Moore^↗, Union^↗, and Enid^↗. In total, 187 of Oklahoma's 541 public school districts recorded their lowest enrollment in at least 11 years of available data in 2025-26, more than one in three. Tulsa, OKC, Moore, and Union are on the list alongside hundreds of smaller districts. The decline spans every size class.

The 187 districts at all-time lows collectively enroll 214,793 students, 31.3% of the state's public school population. Only 68 districts, 12.6%, are at all-time highs. The ratio is nearly three to one, and it is the widest gap in the dataset outside the COVID year of 2020-21.

The 10,640-student cliff

Oklahoma lost 10,640 students between 2024-25 and 2025-26, a 1.5% drop that exceeds even the pandemic-year loss of 9,537 students in 2020-21. The state peaked at 703,650 students in 2019-20, briefly recovered to 701,258 by 2022-23, and has now fallen to 686,718, a new floor.

The pattern since the peak is unmistakable: three years of modest recovery followed by three years of accelerating decline. The losses went from 2,156 in 2023-24 to 1,744 in 2024-25 to 10,640 this year. That final drop is not a gradual erosion. It is the largest single-year loss in the 11-year dataset.

The big districts are not immune

The conventional wisdom about enrollment decline is that it is a rural problem. Oklahoma's data contradicts that. Four of the state's 10 largest traditional districts are at record lows: Tulsa (32,450 students), Oklahoma City (31,104), Moore (22,715), and Union (14,440). A fifth top-10 district, Putnam City^↗ (18,122), sits just 1.6% above its own floor.

The losses at the top are severe. Oklahoma City has lost 14,653 students since its 2016-17 peak of 45,757, a 32.0% decline. The district once enrolled 14,000 more students than Tulsa. By 2021-22, Tulsa had passed it, and the gap has held since. Tulsa has shed 8,417 students from its own 2015-16 peak of 40,867, a 20.6% decline.

Midwest City-Del City^↗ lost 2,541 students since 2019-20, a 17.9% drop. Muskogee^↗ is down 722 students (13.5%) over the same period. Ponca City^↗ fell 9.7%. Among the top 20 districts, only Norman^↗, Bixby^↗, Deer Creek^↗, and Mustang^↗ gained students since the pre-COVID peak, and all four are suburban systems on the edges of the Oklahoma City or Tulsa metros.

Decline touches every size class

The all-time-low pattern is not concentrated in any single tier. Among the state's 13 districts enrolling 10,000 or more students, four (30.8%) are at record lows. Among the 277 districts in the 100-to-499 range, 103 (37.2%) are at their floor. Even the smallest districts, those under 100 students, have an ATL rate of 41.7%.

The only size class with a relatively low ATL rate is the 5,000-to-9,999 bracket, where just one of nine districts (Enid) is at its lowest point. The mid-sized and large brackets track closely, between 28% and 42%, suggesting a statewide structural force rather than a phenomenon confined to any one type of community.

Birth rates, school choice, and the pipeline

The most likely driver of this breadth of decline is demographic. Oklahoma's kindergarten enrollment has fallen from 53,453 in 2015-16 to 45,680 in 2025-26, a 14.5% drop. Fewer children are entering the system each year, and the outgoing 12th-grade cohorts are larger than the incoming ones.

"Observers say falling birth rates are the main culprit." — Oklahoma Watch, January 2026

School choice adds a second pressure. The Oklahoma Parental Choice Tax Credit, launched in 2024, approved 39,373 students for $248.4 million in credits for the 2025-26 school year, nearly exhausting its $250 million annual cap. Of those, 3,724 were prior public school students who transferred to private schools. The program also funds a separate homeschool credit that served 2,692 returns in tax year 2024. The direct public-to-private flow of 3,724 students is a fraction of the 10,640-student statewide loss, but it compounds a demographic decline that was already underway.

Virtual charter schools absorb a larger share. Oklahoma's virtual and charter sector enrolled 57,136 students in 2025-26 across 28 entities, 8.3% of statewide enrollment. Epic Charter Schools^↗ alone enrolls 29,201 students and is at an all-time high, making it the state's third-largest district by enrollment. Epic faces ongoing legal and financial scrutiny: its co-founders face racketeering and embezzlement charges, and a forensic investigation found that financial mismanagement led to roughly 500 employee terminations between October 2024 and July 2025.

125 districts in multi-year freefall

The record-low count captures a snapshot. The streak data captures a trajectory. Of Oklahoma's 541 districts, 122 (22.6%) have declined for three or more consecutive years through 2025-26. Thirteen have declined for five or more years. Anadarko^↗ and Locust Grove^↗ have each declined for 10 consecutive years, the longest streaks in the dataset.

The median district has lost 11.2% of its enrollment since 2015-16. Of the 509 districts with data in both the first and last years, 372 (73.1%) have fewer students now than they did 11 years ago. Only 135 have grown.

COVID recovery has been limited. Of 516 districts present in both 2019-20 and 2025-26, just 147 (28.5%) have returned to their pre-pandemic enrollment. The other 369 have not. Many of those 369 are now at all-time lows.

The rural edge

Oklahoma has more than 500 districts for roughly 687,000 students, a ratio that makes consolidation a recurring policy debate. More than half of the state's districts enroll fewer than 500 students.

"I see what's coming. I can see it down the road ... we're going to start losing programs." — David Morris, Superintendent of Paoli^↗ Public Schools, on the possibility of annexation. KGOU, May 2025

For districts with 180 students or fewer, like Paoli, enrollment decline is existential. With single-digit class sizes in some grades, programs shrink, extracurriculars disappear, and parents begin looking elsewhere. That departure accelerates the decline. The state maintains a School Consolidation Assistance Fund, backed by the Oklahoma Education Lottery Trust Fund, to help districts that voluntarily annex. But annexation requires affirmative votes from both communities, and it rarely comes without grief.

"It was a gut punch. Oh, my god, my school's closing. That was really hard." — Kevin Flowers, McLish Public Schools alumnus, on his district's annexation to Stonewall 20 years ago. KGOU, May 2025

Where the growth is

Not every district is shrinking. The 68 districts at all-time highs are disproportionately suburban and charter. Epic Charter Schools (29,201) leads, followed by Norman (16,630), Bixby (8,532), Deer Creek (8,165), and Piedmont^↗ (5,497). Deer Creek has grown 18.8% since 2019-20; Bixby has grown 26.9%. Both are outer-ring suburbs that have absorbed families leaving Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

The pattern is familiar from other states: urban cores losing enrollment to an expanding suburban ring, while virtual charters capture families statewide. Edmond^↗ (24,993) and Broken Arrow^↗ (19,765) are the fourth- and sixth-largest districts and have held relatively stable, losing 2.4% and declining modestly, neither at record lows nor highs.

What 187 record lows mean for school finance

Oklahoma ranks 49th nationally in per-pupil funding according to the National Education Association. Because per-pupil funding follows students, every lost student reduces a district's state aid allocation. The state education budget was reduced by $108 million (3%) for fiscal year 2025, even as districts faced the expiration of federal pandemic relief funds.

For the 187 districts at record lows, the math is punishing. Fixed costs, building maintenance, transportation routes, administrative overhead, do not scale down proportionally when enrollment drops 10% or 15%. A district like Ponca City, down 458 students from its 2019-20 count, still runs the same bus routes and heats the same buildings.

Kindergarten enrollment has declined for four consecutive years and is now 14.5% below its 2015-16 level. Those smaller classes will move through the system, reaching each grade level and pushing its enrollment lower. When they do, a new set of districts will join the 187. The October count that matters most is not the one that just happened. It is the one in 2030, when the children born during the pandemic's fertility trough enter fifth grade and the last of the large cohorts graduates out.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Oklahoma's Elementary Pipeline Is Emptying

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

For every kindergartner who walked into an Oklahoma public school this fall, a senior walked out the other end and took a friend. The state enrolled 45,680 kindergartners in 2025-26 but counted 49,213 seniors, a gap of 3,533 students. That inversion, which appeared for the first time just last year, is a symptom of a deeper structural shift: Oklahoma's elementary pipeline is emptying while its high schools are still riding the momentum of larger cohorts born a decade ago.

Grades K-3 have shed 26,484 students since 2015-16, a 12.2% decline. Grades 9-12 added 19,955, a 10.7% gain. The combined swing of 46,439 students between the two grade bands amounts to 6.8% of the state's total enrollment, redistributed from the bottom of the pipeline to the top.

The crossover that districts felt before they saw it

For years, Oklahoma's K-3 band was comfortably larger than its 9-12 band. In 2015-16, K-3 enrolled 216,766 students, nearly 30,000 more than the 187,031 in grades 9-12. That cushion shrank steadily. By 2022-23, the two lines touched. In 2023-24, grades 9-12 pulled ahead for the first time, and by 2025-26 the gap had widened to 16,704 students.

Elementary principals have been managing this contraction for a decade. The acceleration in 2025-26 made it impossible to ignore: K-3 lost 7,074 students in a single year, more than double the 3,389 lost the year before and the largest one-year K-3 drop in the dataset.

The losses are not uniform across grades. Pre-K is down 15.9% since 2015-16, kindergarten 14.5%, first grade 14.6%. The magnitude fades as grades rise: second grade is down 10.6%, third grade 9.1%. By fourth grade, the change flips positive. Grades 4 through 8 are collectively up 2.5%, absorbing the tail end of the larger cohorts that passed through elementary school earlier. Grades 11 and 12, populated by students born in 2007-2009 when Oklahoma's birth rate was higher, are up 15.4% and 17.0% respectively.

Fewer births, more exits

The primary driver is demographic. Oklahoma's fertility rate fell nearly 12% between 2013 and 2023, tracking a national decline that pushed the U.S. fertility rate to 1.6 births per woman in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement threshold. Children born in 2020, when births dipped further during the pandemic, entered kindergarten in 2025-26. That cohort of 45,680 is the smallest kindergarten class in the dataset by a wide margin, 14.5% below the 53,453 who started kindergarten in 2015-16.

The birth-rate mechanism explains the shape of the decline: losses concentrated at the bottom of the pipeline, fading in the middle grades, and absent at the top. It does not explain the entire magnitude. Oklahoma's Parental Choice Tax Credit program has expanded rapidly since its launch. As of May 2025, 36,860 children had been approved for credits in the 2025-26 school year, of whom 2,999 were currently enrolled in a public school. The numbers suggest a modest but real diversion from the public system. Because the program does not publish participation by grade level, it is not possible to isolate how much of the elementary decline reflects families choosing private or homeschool options rather than a smaller pool of children.

"We have a relatively cool housing market...and there is a declining birth rate in Oklahoma and across the nation." -- John Federline, Union Public Schools superintendent, Tulsa World, Jan. 2026

The state compounds the uncertainty by not requiring families to register for homeschooling. Oklahoma has no comprehensive count of privately educated students, making it impossible to distinguish between children who don't exist and children who attend school somewhere else.

Two cities carry the weight

Oklahoma City^↗ and Tulsa^↗ account for 43% of the state's total K-3 losses. Oklahoma City's K-3 enrollment dropped from 16,423 to 9,367, a decline of 7,056 students, or 43.0%. Tulsa lost 4,293 K-3 students, a 29.1% decline. Together, the two districts shed 11,349 early-grade students while the rest of the state lost 15,135.

The concentration is not surprising. Both districts have lost total enrollment for years, driven by suburban migration, school choice programs, and a housing market that has shifted families toward outer-ring communities. Midwest City-Del City^↗ (-1,453 K-3 students, -30.8%), Moore^↗ (-1,314, -18.2%), and Union^↗ (-866, -18.4%) round out the top five losses. The pattern is consistent: urban and first-ring suburban districts are shrinking fastest at the elementary level.

The exceptions are outer suburbs and exurbs. Deer Creek^↗ gained 472 K-3 students (+26.0%), Bixby^↗ added 497 (+26.8%), and Mustang^↗ grew by 479 (+14.4%). These districts are absorbing families from the urban core, but their gains don't come close to offsetting what Oklahoma City and Tulsa are losing.

What this means for high schools, starting around 2030

The high school growth that Oklahoma is experiencing today is borrowed time. The 2016 kindergarten cohort of 53,453, now in 10th grade, is one of the last large classes in the pipeline. The 2021 kindergarten cohort of 50,351, now in fifth grade, will reach ninth grade in 2030. The 2026 kindergarten cohort of 45,680, the smallest on record, will not arrive at high school until 2035.

Between now and then, grades 9-12 will plateau and begin contracting. The 9-12 band already dipped in 2025-26, losing 3,057 students after nine consecutive years of growth, though this likely reflects a one-year fluctuation rather than the start of the structural decline. That structural decline, when it arrives, will compress the budget from both ends: fewer students in elementary schools that are already losing per-pupil funding, and fewer students in the high schools that had been the one stable line item.

Oklahoma ranks 49th nationally in per-pupil spending, according to the National Education Association's 2023-24 data. The state's funding formula allocates dollars based on headcount, with weighted adjustments for grade level and special populations. Elementary schools with shrinking K-3 cohorts are already seeing their allocations contract. When high schools follow, the fiscal pressure will extend to the grade bands that currently look healthy.

Elementary enrollment will keep falling. The children who would fill those classrooms in 2030 have already been born, or not. High school enrollment will follow around 2031, when today's smaller kindergarten cohorts reach ninth grade. Between now and then, districts are operating in a brief window where upper grades still generate enough per-pupil funding to subsidize shrinking elementary buildings. That window is closing. Every district that does not consolidate or restructure before it shuts will be doing so under fiscal duress instead.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Traditional Schools Lost 33,300 Students. The State Totals Hid It.

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Oklahoma's statewide enrollment has barely moved in a decade. At 686,718 students in 2025-26, the total sits just 5,952 below its 2015-16 level, a decline of 0.9%. By national standards, that number looks like stability.

It is not. The state total blends two school systems moving in opposite directions. Traditional public schools enrolled 682,769 students in 2015-16. This year they enrolled 649,469, a loss of 33,300 students, or 4.9%. Virtual charter schools, led by Epic Charter Schools, grew from 9,901 to 37,249 over the same period, absorbing enough students to make the combined number look almost flat.

The 27,348-student gap between the headline and reality is a structural shift that Oklahoma's aggregate enrollment data, the number that appears in state reports and national databases, was never designed to show. (Oklahoma does not flag charter or virtual schools in its enrollment files. The virtual sector here includes seven entities identified by name: Epic, Oklahoma Virtual Charter Academy, Oklahoma Connections Academy, Insight School, eSCHOOL, Dove Virtual Academy, and Virtual Preparatory Academy. Brick-and-mortar charter schools remain in the traditional count.)

A decade of quiet erosion

Traditional districts were already losing students before COVID-19. Between 2015-16 and 2019-20, they shed 11,613 students at a pace of roughly 2,000 to 5,000 per year. The losses were steady enough to avoid headlines, spread across hundreds of small and mid-sized districts where a few dozen departures each year registered as background noise.

The pandemic changed the scale. In the single year from 2019-20 to 2020-21, traditional schools lost 44,056 students. Virtual charter enrollment doubled from 32,494 to 67,013. The state total fell by only 9,537, because the vast majority of the traditional loss transferred to virtual seats, not out of the public system entirely.

What happened next was partial, then reversed. Traditional enrollment rebounded by 39,537 students between 2020-21 and 2022-23, recovering roughly 90% of its COVID-year loss. But that recovery stalled. Since 2022-23, traditional schools have lost another 17,168 students. The 2025-26 single-year drop of 12,058 is the largest non-pandemic loss in the dataset, and it brought traditional enrollment to its lowest non-pandemic level in the 11-year series.

Epic's shadow over the data

The virtual sector's story is inseparable from one entity. Epic Charter Schools^↗ enrolled 6,037 students in 2015-16. By 2020-21, that number was 59,445, a tenfold increase that made Epic the largest public school enrollment entity in the state. Its two predecessor entities, Epic One on One and Epic Blended Learning, merged into a single district reporting unit in 2022-23 at 28,478 students, roughly half the peak.

Epic's co-founders, Ben Harris and David Chaney, face felony charges of racketeering, embezzlement, and obtaining money by false pretenses. The Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation inquiry and State Auditor audit allege the co-founders funneled public funds through a Student Learning Fund they controlled. Preliminary hearings concluded in late February 2026 after roughly 18 hours of testimony; a judge will decide in April whether the case proceeds to trial.

"We remain fully focused on presenting the facts and evidence in this case. We are committed to ensuring that no one sidetracks justice or evades accountability." — Attorney General Gentner Drummond, Nov. 2025

Epic's enrollment has stabilized at 29,201 in 2025-26, still nearly five times its 2015-16 size. The broader virtual sector, including Oklahoma Virtual Charter Academy^↗ (3,966 students), Oklahoma Connections Academy^↗ (1,508), Insight School of Oklahoma^↗ (1,455), and four smaller entities, totals 37,249 students, or 5.4% of statewide enrollment.

In 2015-16, virtual schools held 1.4% of state enrollment. That share spiked to 9.7% during the pandemic year, settled back, and has crept upward to 5.4%. The sector's growth has slowed, but it has not reversed: virtual enrollment in 2025-26 is the highest since the post-pandemic correction.

Two cities, two-thirds of the loss

Oklahoma City^↗ and Tulsa^↗ account for 22,890 of the 33,300 traditional students lost since 2015-16, or 68.7% of the total. Oklahoma City alone lost 14,473 students, a 31.8% decline that cost it the title of largest district in the state. Tulsa surpassed Oklahoma City in 2021-22 enrollment counts, the first time since 2013 it held that position. But Tulsa's lead is less a sign of strength than of slower decline: Tulsa itself lost 8,417 students, or 20.6%, over the same period.

Behind them, Midwest City-Del City^↗ (-2,908), Lawton^↗ (-1,712), and Union^↗ (-1,566) round out the top five. Together, these five districts lost 29,076 students, 87.3% of the traditional total.

Of 506 traditional districts with data in both years, 372 lost enrollment. The 132 that grew added a combined 22,987 students, nowhere near enough to offset the 72,523 lost by declining districts. The math is lopsided: for every student gained somewhere, three were lost somewhere else.

The suburban ring gained. It was not enough.

The districts growing fastest sit in the suburban rings around Oklahoma City: Mustang^↗ (+2,630, up 24.4%), Deer Creek^↗ (+2,537, up 45.1%), Bixby^↗ (+2,486, up 41.1%), and Piedmont^↗ (+1,848, up 50.6%). Edmond^↗ and Yukon^↗ added roughly 1,000 each.

The pattern is familiar in every state with a large urban core. Families moving to newer housing stock on the metro fringe take per-pupil funding with them. The suburban gains are real, but they represent redistribution, not growth. The entire ring of gainers absorbed about 11,500 students. Oklahoma City alone lost more than that.

What is driving the acceleration

The most recent year is what distinguishes this story from a slow-burn trend. Traditional schools lost 12,058 students between 2024-25 and 2025-26, more than triple the prior year's loss of 3,779 and the worst non-pandemic year in the series.

Declining birth rates are the most likely structural driver. Oklahoma Watch reported in January 2026 that falling birth rates are the primary factor behind the enrollment drop, with steeper losses concentrated in pre-K through third grade, the grades where smaller birth cohorts first appear in enrollment data.

A second contributing factor is the state's expanding school choice landscape. Oklahoma's Parental Choice Tax Credit, which provides $5,000 to $7,500 per child for private school tuition, approved 37,428 children for the 2025-26 school year, with 3,278 identified as switching from public to private schools for the first time. The program has nearly exhausted its $250 million cap. Whether the tax credit is drawing students who would have left anyway or accelerating departures is not yet clear from enrollment data alone. The 3,278 confirmed switchers represent a fraction of the 12,058 traditional-sector loss, but the program is in its second year and the cap may increase.

A third factor is the expiration of federal pandemic relief funds. Districts that used ESSER dollars to retain staff or add programs now face the same enrollment-driven budget pressure without the cushion.

"Operating a school building has fixed costs whether filled with 200 or 400 students, but fewer students means fewer dollars." — Oklahoma Watch, January 2026

The data cannot distinguish how much of the 2025-26 cliff is birth-rate driven, how much reflects private school transfers, and how much is families leaving the state. Oklahoma does not publish a public-to-private transfer dataset, and the Parental Choice Tax Credit reports identify only a subset of families who applied for the credit, not all private school enrollment.

What comes next

Virtual charters are growing modestly. Traditional schools are accelerating downward. The state total blends them together and produces a number that looks almost stable. That blending has been hiding a 33,300-student loss for a decade.

The mismatch matters most at budget time. A superintendent in a traditional district does not compete against the state average. She competes against the per-pupil formula, which sends dollars wherever students sit, and against the fixed cost of a building that was designed for 600 students and now holds 450. The headline enrollment number told her the state was roughly stable. Her empty classrooms told her something different. The classrooms were right.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Bixby Grew 41% While Tulsa Lost a Fifth of Its Students

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Bixby^↗ added 2,486 students over the last decade. Tulsa^↗ Public Schools, 15 miles north, lost 8,417 in the same period. The two districts share a metro area, a labor market, and an interstate corridor. Their enrollment lines are going in opposite directions.

Since 2015-16, Tulsa has lost 20.6% of its enrollment, falling from 40,867 to 32,450 students. That decline was not absorbed by the state at large. It migrated south and east, into the ring of newer, wealthier suburbs that surrounds the city. Bixby grew 41.1%. Collinsville^↗ grew 19.5%. Coweta^↗ grew 13.0%. The students moved south and east.

Two rings, two realities

The Tulsa metro splits cleanly into an inner ring of declining districts and an outer ring of growing ones.

The inner ring, which includes Tulsa, Union^↗, Sand Springs^↗, Catoosa^↗, Sapulpa^↗, and several smaller districts, enrolled 78,219 students in 2015-16. By 2025-26, that number had fallen to 66,449, a loss of 11,770 students, or 15.0%.

The outer ring, Broken Arrow^↗, Jenks^↗, Bixby, Owasso^↗, Collinsville, Coweta, and Glenpool^↗, went the other direction: from 54,947 to 60,073, a gain of 5,126 students, or 9.3%.

The metro as a whole still shrank. The outer ring's gains offset only 43% of the inner ring's losses. The remaining 6,644 students left the Tulsa metro entirely, moving to virtual schools, private schools, homeschool, or out of state.

The COVID crater Tulsa never climbed out of

Tulsa was already losing students before 2020. The district shed about 500 per year from 2016-17 through 2019-20, a manageable if persistent bleed. Then the pandemic hit.

In the two school years spanning COVID, 2020-21 and 2021-22, Tulsa lost 5,298 students, 63% of its entire decade-long decline compressed into two years. The brief recovery in 2022-23, when 660 students returned, proved to be an anomaly. Enrollment fell again in 2023-24 and 2024-25 before dropping 1,167 in 2025-26, the largest single-year loss since the pandemic.

The suburbs, by contrast, bounced back quickly. Broken Arrow posted its highest enrollment ever in 2022-23 at 20,115, surpassing its pre-COVID peak within two years. Bixby added 728 students in 2021-22 alone, its largest single-year gain on record. The pandemic did not just shrink Tulsa. It accelerated a suburbanization pattern that was already underway.

Where the pipeline is breaking

Tulsa's losses are not distributed evenly across grades. The youngest grades have been hollowed out. Kindergarten enrollment fell 29.2%, from 3,566 to 2,523. First grade fell 30.0%. Third grade and sixth grade both fell 30.8%.

The only grades that grew were 11th (+12.4%) and 12th (+29.8%), a pattern consistent with extended graduation timelines rather than new enrollment. When upper grades grow while lower grades collapse, a district is watching its future student body shrink in real time.

Bixby's grade distribution tells the opposite story. Every single grade grew, from PK (+41.5%) through 12th (+43.5%), with the largest gains in grades 6, 7, 8, and 11, where enrollment increased by more than 50%. Bixby is not just receiving Tulsa's spillover. It is building a complete K-12 pipeline of its own.

Even the traditional suburbs are slipping

Union, long the second-largest district in the Tulsa metro, lost 1,566 students (-9.8%) over the same period. Sand Springs lost 314 (-6.0%). Catoosa lost 377 (-17.9%). The donut's hole is wider than Tulsa alone.

Owasso, one of the largest outer-ring districts at 9,728 students, gained just 17 over the full decade, effectively flat. Broken Arrow peaked in 2022-23 and has since lost 350 students across three years. Jenks has declined in three consecutive years.

The outer ring's growth is increasingly concentrated in Bixby, Collinsville, and Coweta, smaller districts south and east of Tulsa where new housing development has been extensive. Bixby's rapid residential growth is driven by what the city describes as extensive new housing development.

A familiar pattern, with a twist

The Tulsa donut mirrors what is happening 100 miles southwest. Oklahoma City^↗ has lost 14,473 students (-31.8%) since 2015-16, an even steeper decline than Tulsa's. The OKC metro's outer ring tells the same story: Deer Creek grew 45.1%, Piedmont grew 50.6%, Mustang grew 24.4%.

Tulsa overtook OKC as the state's largest district in 2021-22, but only because OKC was falling faster. By 2025-26, the gap between them had widened to 1,346 students (32,450 vs. 31,104), with both districts on parallel downward paths.

Multiple forces are pulling students from urban cores simultaneously. The Oklahoma Parental Choice Tax Credit, which offers refundable credits of $5,000 to $7,500 per child for private school tuition, approved 37,428 children statewide for the 2025-26 school year, with 3,278 confirmed to have switched from public to private schools. Union Superintendent John Federline has been direct about the impact:

"This ill-advised system has little or no accountability and has siphoned off both students and funding from public schools." — Tulsa World, Jan. 2026

School choice, however, is layered on top of a longer-running suburban migration pattern. Higher interest rates have slowed housing turnover in established neighborhoods while new construction continues in outer suburbs. Federline noted a "relatively cool housing market in the Union district with higher interest rates keeping people in their homes, and there is a declining birth rate in Oklahoma and across the nation."

Immigration enforcement is a third variable. Immigration attorney Lorena Rivas told the Tulsa World about a "drastic increase of people being deported," noting many are parents whose children leave the school system when families are displaced. The enrollment data cannot distinguish between families who moved to Bixby and families who left Oklahoma entirely.

Buildings for sale

The physical consequences of the donut are visible in Tulsa's real estate listings. The district is selling surplus properties, including former elementary schools that closed during 2020 budget cuts. Park Elementary went to Under the Canopy charter school for $350,800. Jones Elementary went to Tulsa Honor Academy for $1 million.

TPS Chief of Strategy Sean Berkstresser explained the rationale: "In the long term, we're worried about the building losing value and the potential for it to create property blight in the neighborhood." Six more properties are currently accepting sealed bids.

The layoffs followed in February 2026: 50 administrative positions cut, with district leaders calling it "the first round" of reductions to prevent a budget cliff driven by falling enrollment and expiring pandemic-era federal funding.

Oklahoma ranks 47th nationally in per-pupil spending, according to the Oklahoma Education Association. When per-student funding is already thin, losing 8,417 students does not just close buildings. It eliminates programs, consolidates routes, and increases class sizes in the buildings that remain open.

What to watch next

Tulsa's share of statewide enrollment has fallen from 5.9% in 2015-16 to 4.7% in 2025-26, a 1.2 percentage point decline that translates to an outsized loss of political and fiscal weight. The kindergarten numbers suggest the trajectory is not finished: with 2,523 kindergarteners in 2025-26 compared to 3,566 a decade ago, the classes entering the pipeline are 29% smaller than the classes exiting it.

Bixby, meanwhile, faces the opposite problem. Growth at 41% over a decade strains capacity. Whether the district can build schools fast enough to absorb the families arriving in its new subdivisions will determine whether the donut's outer ring remains a destination or becomes the next place parents drive past on their way to somewhere newer.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Tulsa Is Now Oklahoma's Largest District. Both It and OKC Are at All-Time Lows.

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

For decades, the question of Oklahoma's largest school district had an obvious answer. Oklahoma City enrolled 45,577 students in 2015-16, nearly 5,000 more than Tulsa. The gap seemed structural, built into the relative size of the two metros.

It is gone. Tulsa^↗ passed Oklahoma City^↗ in 2021-22 with 33,211 students to OKC's 32,086. By 2025-26, the gap has widened to 1,346 students: 32,450 in Tulsa, 31,104 in OKC. Both districts are at the lowest enrollment in the 11-year data window. The title of Oklahoma's largest district now belongs to a school system that has lost more than 8,400 students in a decade.

Two districts, two rates of collapse

Oklahoma City and Tulsa are both shrinking, but at very different speeds. OKC has lost 14,473 students since 2016, a 31.8% decline. Tulsa has lost 8,417, or 20.6%. The difference is not that Tulsa found a way to grow. It is that OKC fell faster.

The divergence is concentrated in two catastrophic years. Between 2019-20 and 2021-22, OKC shed 10,427 students, a 24.5% drop in just two years. Tulsa lost 5,298 over the same period, 13.8%. Those two years account for 72% of OKC's total decline and 63% of Tulsa's.

What happened in 2020-21 and 2021-22? The pandemic pushed families toward virtual options, and Epic Charter Schools^↗ was waiting. Epic's combined enrollment surged from 28,068 in 2019-20 to 59,445 in 2020-21, adding 31,377 students in a single year. OKC, as the state's largest urban district with the highest concentration of families seeking alternatives, bore a disproportionate share of that exodus.

Epic's enrollment has since contracted sharply. Its co-founders, Ben Harris and David Chaney, face felony charges including racketeering and embezzlement. A separate forensic audit commissioned by the Statewide Charter School Board found a $22.9 million budget shortfall resulting from financial mismanagement, though it found no evidence of embezzlement. Epic's enrollment fell to 29,201 by 2025-26, roughly half its peak. But the students who left OKC and Tulsa for Epic largely did not return. OKC recovered just 1,159 students in 2022-23, then resumed losing. Tulsa recovered 660, then flatlined.

The kindergarten signal

The pipeline data is where the long-term prognosis lives. OKC enrolled 4,129 kindergartners in 2015-16. In 2025-26, that number is 2,231, a 46.0% decline. Tulsa's kindergarten class fell from 3,566 to 2,523, a 29.2% drop. Both are severe, but OKC's is closer to a halving.

Pre-K tells a similar story. OKC's PK enrollment dropped from 3,119 to 1,672, down 46.4%. The early grades are the leading indicator: smaller kindergarten classes in 2026 become smaller third-grade classes in 2029 and smaller eighth-grade classes in 2034. The enrollment declines currently visible in upper grades reflect cohorts that entered school when the pipeline was still relatively full. The cohorts now entering are substantially smaller.

Oklahoma's fertility rate dropped 12.2% between 2011 and 2023. The births that produce kindergartners in 2026 happened in 2020 and 2021, at the trough of pandemic-era fertility. The pipeline will not widen soon.

A suburban donut around both cities

The enrollment OKC and Tulsa lost did not vanish from the state. Much of it moved outward. Deer Creek^↗, on OKC's northern edge, grew 45.1% since 2016, adding 2,537 students. Mustang^↗, to the southwest, grew 24.4%. On the Tulsa side, Bixby^↗ grew 41.1%, adding 2,486 students. Jenks^↗ added 700, up 6.0%.

The pattern is a classic suburban donut: urban cores hollowing out while outer-ring districts absorb growth. But the inner suburbs are splitting. Putnam City^↗, which borders OKC, lost 6.4%. Moore^↗ lost 4.9%. On the Tulsa side, Union^↗ lost 9.8%. These are not exurban districts at the metro fringe. They are established, mid-ring suburbs that have historically been stable, now caught in the same current pulling students from the urban core.

The school choice landscape adds another layer. Oklahoma's Parental Choice Tax Credit, launched in December 2023, provides $5,000 to $7,500 per child for private school tuition. According to the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs, 36,860 students were approved for credits in 2025-26, with 2,999 currently enrolled in public school at the time of application. The program is capped at $250 million, and the Oklahoma Tax Commission reported it had awarded $248.5 million by November 2025. The tax credit's cumulative effect on urban districts, which have the highest density of private school alternatives, is not yet separable from the broader decline.

What shrinking means inside the building

The fiscal consequences of enrollment loss are immediate in Oklahoma, where per-pupil funding follows students. As OKCPS Deputy Superintendent Jason Brown told NonDoc in April 2024:

"We've been preparing — and our principals have been preparing — knowing that those ratios would increase year after year — getting us back to normal staffing ratios, and so next year we'll be back to normal, non-ESSER-inflated staffing ratios."

That preparation means larger classes. OKCPS kindergarten sections are rising from 22 to 26 students. Grades 1-2 are going from 22 to 28. Board member Jessica Cifuentes was blunt about the tradeoff:

"They're going to cut more teachers, and not only that, that's going to create more work for the teachers that are already there. That's not sustainable, and it saddens me that our students are going through this." — NonDoc, April 2024

Oklahoma ranks 49th nationally in per-pupil K-12 spending. When enrollment drops and per-pupil funding is already near the bottom, districts have almost no margin to absorb the loss without cutting staff.

A shrinking share of a shrinking state

Together, OKC and Tulsa enrolled 12.5% of all Oklahoma public school students in 2016. In 2026, they account for 9.3%. The state's total enrollment has itself declined, from 703,650 at its 2019-20 peak to 686,718 in 2025-26. But the two largest districts are losing share faster than the state is losing students.

Epic Charter School, at 29,201 students, is now the state's third-largest district, fewer than 2,000 behind OKC. Edmond^↗, at 24,993, is fourth. If OKC's decline continues at its 2025-26 rate, and Epic holds steady, Epic could pass OKC within two years.

The crossover was not a fluke. Tulsa has led OKC for five consecutive years, the gap is widening, and both districts are entering a decade of smaller incoming cohorts. Meanwhile, Epic Charter School sits at 29,201 students, fewer than 2,000 behind OKC. If current trends hold, Epic could pass OKC within two years, and Oklahoma's capital city would be home to the state's third-largest school district.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Fewer Kindergartners Than Seniors for the First Time

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT

In 2016, Oklahoma's public schools enrolled 127 kindergartners for every 100 seniors. A decade later, that ratio has collapsed to 93. For the first time in the state's available enrollment history, fewer five-year-olds are starting school than 18-year-olds are finishing it.

The crossover happened in 2024-25, when kindergarten enrollment fell to 47,300 while 12th grade climbed to 49,281. This year the gap widened: 45,680 kindergartners against 49,213 seniors, a deficit of 3,533 students. The inversion is not a one-year anomaly. It is the endpoint of two converging trends that have been running for a decade, and it locks in continued enrollment losses through at least the early 2030s.

A ratio in freefall

The kindergarten-to-senior ratio is a simple measure of a school system's demographic momentum. Above 100, more students are entering than leaving. Below 100, the system is shrinking from the bottom up.

Oklahoma's ratio held near 120 from 2017 through 2020, then dropped sharply. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the decline: kindergarten fell by 2,381 students in a single year (2020 to 2021), while 12th grade kept climbing. By 2024, the ratio had narrowed to 103.5. By 2025, it crossed the parity line at 96.0. This year it sits at 92.8.

The decline on the kindergarten side is steep and sustained: from 53,453 in 2016 to 45,680 in 2026, a loss of 7,773 students, or 14.5%. The 12th-grade side moved in the opposite direction, climbing from 42,061 to 49,213, a gain of 7,152 students, or 17.0%. The combined swing of nearly 15,000 students between the two grades produced a gap that did not exist a decade ago.

The bottom falls out, grade by grade

The inversion at kindergarten and 12th grade is the most visible expression of a structural shift that runs through the entire grade distribution. Every grade from pre-K through 3rd lost students between 2016 and 2026. Every grade from 4th through 12th gained.

The losses are concentrated at the youngest levels. First grade lost 8,164 students (14.6%), the largest absolute decline of any grade. Kindergarten lost 7,773 (14.5%). Pre-K lost 6,614 (15.9%). The gains are concentrated at the top: 12th grade added 7,152 students (17.0%), 11th grade added 6,930 (15.4%), and 10th grade added 3,697 (7.6%).

Fourth grade is the approximate pivot point, gaining just 274 students over the decade. The result is a system that is tilting: elementary enrollment (K-5) has fallen from 48.5% of K-12 students in 2016 to 44.8% in 2026, a loss of 23,775 students. Secondary enrollment (6-12) grew by 23,396 over the same period. For every three students Oklahoma's elementary schools lost, its secondary schools gained three.

What is shrinking the front end

The most likely driver of falling kindergarten enrollment is fewer births. Oklahoma's fertility rate dropped 12.2% between 2011 and 2023, from 67.3 to 59.1 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, according to March of Dimes PeriStats data. The national total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.6 children per woman in 2024, well below the 2.1 replacement level. Children born in 2020 and 2021, at the trough of pandemic-era fertility, are entering kindergarten now.

School choice is a contributing but secondary factor. Oklahoma's Parental Choice Tax Credit program approved 37,428 students for 2025-26, with 3,278 switching from public to private school for the first time. The tax credit provides up to $7,500 per child. Whether the program is pulling disproportionately from kindergarten is unknown; the program does not publish a grade-level breakdown.

"Public school enrollment fell across the U.S. and is largely attributed to plummeting birth rates and shifting attitudes toward school post-pandemic." -- Oklahoma Watch, Jan. 2026

Homeschooling adds another unknown. Oklahoma does not require homeschool families to register, so no reliable count exists. One analysis estimated that nearly one in four Oklahoma school-age children may now be educated outside their zoned public school, whether through homeschooling, virtual charters, open transfers, or private school.

What is inflating the back end

The 12th-grade surge is real, but part of it reflects structural features of how Oklahoma counts high school students. The 8th-to-9th grade transition has consistently run between 104% and 106% every year since 2016, meaning 9th grade is always larger than the 8th-grade class that preceded it. Some of this reflects students re-entering from private school, homeschool, or virtual programs at the high school level.

The 11th-to-12th transition runs at 94-96%, meaning about 5% of 11th graders do not appear as 12th graders the following year. But the 12th-grade total has still grown because the cohorts feeding into it were larger than the cohorts that came before. The 12th-grade class of 2026 (49,213) traces back to the 9th-grade class of 2023 (56,166 students), with normal attrition along the way.

Oklahoma's graduation indicator includes both four-year and fifth-year graduates, suggesting some retained students inflate 12th-grade counts in a given year. The state's four-year graduation rate of 81% is among the lowest nationally, which is consistent with some students cycling through 12th grade more than once.

The pipeline deficit

The pipeline deficit matters more than the K-versus-G12 headline: the gap between students entering the system and students leaving it.

In 2016, Oklahoma enrolled 95,096 students in pre-K and kindergarten combined, against 87,163 in 11th and 12th grade. The entry surplus was 7,933 students. By 2021, the lines crossed: 87,495 entering versus 93,524 exiting, a deficit of 6,029. This year, the deficit hit 20,536. The system is losing more than 20,000 students per year through graduation and attrition than it is gaining through new enrollment.

This deficit has direct consequences for statewide totals. Oklahoma enrolled 686,718 students in 2025-26, its lowest figure in at least 11 years and down 16,932 from the 2020 peak of 703,650. The pipeline math makes continued decline nearly certain: the current K-12 enrollment of 649,046 (excluding pre-K) contains 290,922 students in grades K-5 and 358,124 in grades 6-12. As smaller elementary cohorts replace larger graduating classes, the total will keep falling even if kindergarten enrollment stabilizes at current levels.

Nearly two-thirds of districts are inverted

The statewide inversion is not driven by a handful of large districts. In 2016, 151 of 422 districts with both K and 12th-grade enrollment (35.8%) had fewer kindergartners than seniors. By 2026, that figure had climbed to 262 of 425 districts, or 61.6%.

Among the 10 largest districts, only three enrolled more kindergartners than seniors in 2026: Mustang^↗ (ratio of 101.4), Oklahoma City^↗ (105.7), and Tulsa^↗ (119.8). The suburban ring tells a different story. Union^↗ enrolled 72 kindergartners for every 100 seniors. Moore^↗ enrolled 73. Edmond^↗ enrolled 80. Broken Arrow^↗ enrolled 85. These are districts whose elementary schools are shrinking while their high schools remain full.

The most extreme case among large districts is Epic Charter School^↗, Oklahoma's largest virtual operator, where kindergarten enrollment (935) is less than a third of its 12th-grade count (3,186), a ratio of 29.3. Virtual schools skew heavily toward older students, and Epic's grade distribution amplifies the statewide pattern.

Oklahoma City's ratio fell from 188.4 in 2016 to 105.7 in 2026. The district enrolled 4,129 kindergartners a decade ago. This year: 2,231. Tulsa's ratio dropped from 219.9 to 119.8, with kindergarten falling from 3,566 to 2,523.

Pre-K signals more to come

Pre-K enrollment, which feeds kindergarten the following year, has fallen from 41,643 in 2016 to 35,029 in 2026, a decline of 15.9%. The year-over-year drop in 2026 was 1,679 students, the third-largest single-year loss in the series after the pandemic-era drops in 2021 (-2,993) and 2020 (-1,738). If the historical relationship between pre-K and kindergarten holds, next year's kindergarten class will be smaller still.

Enrollment will keep falling -- the pipeline math guarantees it. A building that served 500 kindergartners a decade ago and serves 420 today still needs a roof, a principal, and heat. Oklahoma's per-pupil funding formula sends dollars where students sit. When fewer five-year-olds show up each September, the money leaves too, even if the building stays.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.